An Evaluation of Gdp Forecasts Made by Japanese Individual Economists
نویسنده
چکیده
We evaluate the relative accuracy of real GDP forecasts made by 25 Japanese economists over the past 15 years. The encompassing test reveals the following results. (a) All of these forecasts outperform naïve forecasts. (b) Their current-year forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecasts of VAR, VECM, or the Japanese government. (c) Their year-ahead forecasts are inferior to the corresponding forecast of VECM, although they are as accurate as VAR or the government forecast. (d) On the whole, their forecasts are significantly inferior to those of commercial institutions.
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